Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.482175 0.556462 0.636755 0.729788 0.834401 0.948185 1.081087
2025-05-25 0.368406 0.464627 0.576563 0.715631 0.882942 1.076874 1.317733
2025-06-01 0.297514 0.408121 0.545953 0.728506 0.961879 1.247987 1.622744
2025-06-08 0.238359 0.355512 0.511714 0.731767 1.029725 1.414583 1.943873
2025-06-15 0.202503 0.327219 0.504487 0.768946 1.146312 1.657123 2.390629
2025-06-22 0.157823 0.277728 0.460017 0.748549 1.182794 1.798807 2.721897
2025-06-29 0.125705 0.240687 0.427359 0.740090 1.235007 1.968354 3.111111
2025-07-06 0.099214 0.206969 0.393816 0.724845 1.274863 2.124514 3.498350
2025-07-13 0.084399 0.190475 0.385716 0.749292 1.379770 2.389503 4.074752
2025-07-20 0.069336 0.169852 0.366571 0.751861 1.449135 2.606335 4.598463
2025-07-27 0.058893 0.156002 0.357355 0.770606 1.548254 2.881079 5.240106
2025-08-03 0.050553 0.144561 0.350672 0.792960 1.656372 3.181226 5.950161
2025-08-10 0.039206 0.123167 0.320133 0.765869 1.674449 3.336078 6.443956
2025-08-17 0.029614 0.102848 0.287285 0.728183 1.667263 3.445970 6.872218
2025-08-24 0.023862 0.090912 0.271016 0.723162 1.724202 3.679101 7.541731
2025-08-31 0.018976 0.079596 0.253524 0.712220 1.767568 3.891401 8.193243
2025-09-07 0.016367 0.074597 0.251292 0.736927 1.890392 4.269610 9.187111
2025-09-14 0.012504 0.063387 0.229066 0.708351 1.892030 4.407764 9.735696
2025-09-21 0.009831 0.055247 0.213386 0.693325 1.922149 4.606397 10.418517
2025-09-28 0.007615 0.047682 0.197181 0.673520 1.938020 4.776409 11.057992
2025-10-05 0.006536 0.044654 0.194879 0.692061 2.049246 5.159849 12.159264
2025-10-12 0.005327 0.040204 0.186377 0.690963 2.111243 5.441285 13.070778
2025-10-19 0.004535 0.037465 0.183257 0.705552 2.215515 5.826175 14.228015